When the first State of the World Fisheries and Aquaculture (SOFIA) report was published in 1995, the FAO estimated that global aquaculture production would need to double from around 16 million tonnes to 31 million tonnes by 2010 to maintain per capita fish consumption. Since then, the sector has far exceeded expectations, reaching approximately 60 million tonnes by 2010. According to the latest SOFIA report released this month, aquaculture production of aquatic animals reached a record 103 million tonnes in 2024, supplying 59 percent of aquatic animals destined for human consumption worldwide.
The latest SOFIA report paints a picture of a sector that continues to expand and diversify. Production is predicted to reach 119 million tonnes by 2034. More than three billion people now obtain at least 20 percent of their animal protein intake from aquatic foods, while global per capita availability of aquatic animal foods reached an estimated 21.3 kg in 2024.
It will come as no surprise to readers that Asia remains overwhelmingly dominant, accounting for almost 90 percent of global aquaculture production. China alone contributes more than half of all farmed aquatic animals, while India, Indonesia, Viet Nam and Bangladesh collectively account for a further quarter of global output.
Throughout the report, opportunities for expansion are highlighted for Asia, Africa and Latin America. Africa, in particular, is highlighted as a region with enormous untapped aquaculture potential, supported by growing investment in seed production, feed supply, technical expertise and infrastructure. These regions are expected to drive the sector’s future expansion.
Europe presents a very different picture. The continent remains a major consumer market, a centre of scientific excellence, home to many of the world’s leading aquafeed companies and a leader in the production of high-value species such as Atlantic salmon, European seabass, gilthead seabream and rainbow trout.
However, Europe’s contribution to global production continues to decline in relative terms. In 2024, European aquaculture produced approximately 3.48 million tonnes, representing just 2.45 percent of global output. Two years earlier, Europe’s share stood at 2.70 percent. While global production continues to rise rapidly, European production has remained largely static. If Europe continues to consume substantial volumes of aquatic foods while contributing a declining share of global production, it risks becoming even more dependent on external suppliers for an increasingly important component of the food system. The issue is not one of self-sufficiency, nor should it be framed as protectionism. Rather, it is about maintaining a balanced level of domestic production capacity, technical expertise and strategic resilience.
It’s not for lack of desire or effort by European producers – there are legitimate reasons why European aquaculture has expanded more slowly than in many other regions. Producers operate under some of the world’s highest environmental, welfare and food-safety standards. Access to suitable farming sites is constrained. Regulatory approval processes can be lengthy and complex, while public acceptance remains a challenge in some areas. However, there is an important distinction between sustainable growth and no growth.
Europe has already experienced the consequences of allowing strategic industries to gradually migrate elsewhere. Over recent decades, large segments of manufacturing capacity have shifted outside Europe in pursuit of lower production costs, while more recent concerns surrounding energy security have highlighted the risks associated with excessive dependence on external suppliers for strategically important resources. In both cases, efficiency gains were often prioritised over resilience. Aquaculture raises a similar question: to what extent should Europe rely on production occurring elsewhere for an increasingly important component of its food system, particularly when environmental, welfare and regulatory standards differ significantly from those demanded of European producers?
The challenge for Europe is therefore not whether it can produce aquatic foods sustainably. In many respects, it already leads the world in that regard. The challenge is whether it can scale sustainable production. If sustainability objectives are pursued in ways that inadvertently constrain responsible growth, there is a risk that production simply occurs elsewhere. As we have seen with manufacturing, from a global perspective, it may not deliver the environmental outcomes policymakers intend. It simply transfers production, jobs, investment and environmental footprint to regions often operating under less stringent environmental and welfare standards.
The report also reinforces the importance of continued innovation in aquafeeds. Future production growth cannot be achieved simply by increasing feed volumes. It will depend on improvements in feed efficiency, alternative ingredients, precision nutrition, digital technologies and more effective feed management practices. In many respects, Europe remains well positioned to lead this transformation. European companies have been at the forefront of reducing dependence on marine ingredients, developing novel proteins, improving feed conversion efficiency and integrating sustainability metrics into feed formulation.
However, leadership cannot be measured solely by publications, patents and policy ambitions. Ultimately, it must also be reflected in production, investment and growth. The real opportunity lies in coupling scientific excellence and innovation with a policy environment that actively supports responsible sector growth. If we do so, there remains considerable scope for sustainable growth within the European aquaculture sector.
