The global salmon farming industry is projected to grow 40% by 2033, recovering from years of stagnation, according to a new report from seafood market analysis form Kontali. The study forecasts a 27% increase in production by 2030, driven by advances in fish health, land-based farming, and investments in new technologies.
Europe is expected to lead the growth, with a 25% increase in production. Norway, despite facing challenges like sea lice and environmental regulations, will see recovery through improved farming technologies. The Americas will see more modest growth, with production rising by 11%, driven in part by Canada’s shift toward land-based systems.
Asia, especially China, is expected to expand gradually, though large-scale production remains limited. New projects are also emerging in Russia, fueled by domestic demand for salmon. In Australia and New Zealand, growth is slower, with warmer sea temperatures affecting output in Australia, while New Zealand’s new coastal farms will add to global production.
Kontali highlights that land-based farming will be the largest contributor to growth by 2033. Countries like Norway, North America, and Asia are investing in land-based systems to meet sustainability and environmental goals.
However, the industry faces challenges. Regulatory restrictions, including biomass limits and environmental rules, could limit growth, particularly in Norway and Chile. Climate change also poses risks, such as shifting temperatures and new pathogens, that could disrupt production, as per the report.
Despite these hurdles, Kontali’s forecast indicates that the salmon farming sector is poised for a strong recovery. Wild salmon catches are expected to remain stable at 800,000 to 900,000 tonnes per year, with no significant impact on farmed salmon production.
