Rabobank’s annual “Global Aquaculture Outlook 2025” report predicts growth in global aquaculture production, driven by rising demand and lower feed costs. Finfish production, including species like Atlantic salmon, is expected to see the greatest growth, while shrimp production will continue to face challenges due to low prices.
Atlantic salmon, which has faced declines in production over the past two years, is forecast to experience mild growth from 2024 to 2026. Norway is expected to lead this growth, with a 2.2% increase in 2025. Despite difficulties in 2024, including high lice loads and lower-quality fish, Chile is also expected to gradually return to growth, with an estimated 1.4% increase in 2025.
Shrimp production, which has struggled with low prices, is projected to grow by only 2% in 2025, a modest improvement compared to 1% in 2024. Latin American countries, especially Ecuador, will see a slowdown in production, while China and India are expected to experience slight growth.
Freshwater species like pangasius and tilapia are expected to experience the highest growth, with pangasius production rising by 7% and tilapia by 5%, driven by increasing demand from countries like China and Indonesia.
Despite the positive production outlook, the industry faces significant uncertainties, including trade risks and market access issues. The potential for increased tariffs and geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China, could disrupt international seafood trade, which is heavily reliant on exports.
Rabobank’s report highlights concerns about market prices, which remain volatile, and aquafeed costs. While there has been some improvement in demand, the recovery remains tentative, with challenges ahead in major import markets like the US, China, and Europe.
