by Xaviere Lagadec, Global Aquaculture Manager, DNV, France.
As global demand for seafood continues to rise, aquaculture has moved to the centre of future food supply strategies. At the same time, the sector faces increasing pressure to deliver growth within environmental, societal and economic limits. Drawing on insights from DNV’s Seafood Forecast, which analyses long-term developments in global seafood production, demand and value chains towards 2050, this article highlights the digital technology and feed trends that are likely to define aquaculture’s next phase of growth.
Aquaculture’s Expanding Role in Global Food Systems
According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, aquaculture production surpassed capture fisheries for the first time in 2022. While wild fisheries have remained largely stable, aquaculture continues to grow, reinforcing its role as a primary source of seafood globally.
The diversification across production systems and species contributes to resilience in global food supply. Seafood currently provides around 15 percent of the world’s animal-source protein and its importance is expected to increase further as population grows, urbanisation and dietary preferences continue to evolve. However, future growth will depend not only on production capacity, but also on how sustainably and efficiently aquaculture systems are managed.
Evolving Market and Consumer Demands
Long-term demand trends indicate that the global food system will need to adapt to meet the nutritional needs of a population expected to exceed 9.5 billion by 2050. Forecasts suggest that seafood, whether it comes from wild catch or farming, will continue to play a significant role in future diets, particularly as land-based protein production faces constraints related to land use, water availability and emissions.
At the same time, consumer expectations are changing. In addition to volume, markets increasingly demand transparency, traceability and evidence of responsible production practices. These expectations influence not only how seafood is produced but also how information is collected, managed and shared across the value chain. As a result, technological capabilities that support documentation and data-driven decision-making are becoming more closely linked to market access and trust.
Key Developments Shaping Aquaculture Today
The current phase of aquaculture development is characterised by a shift from expansion-driven growth towards more interconnected and controlled production systems. Several connected challenges are shaping technological and operational priorities across the sector.
Feed availability and sourcing remain central issues, as future growth depends on access to high-quality feed ingredients at competitive prices. At the same time, concerns related to deforestation, illegal fishing and resource competition place increasing emphasis on responsible sourcing and efficiency.
Environmental impacts are also under greater scrutiny. Water quality, carbon footprint, biodiversity and the use of marine and coastal space all influence how and where aquaculture can expand. Fish health and biosecurity have become defining factors, as disease outbreaks affect productivity, animal welfare and food safety. In parallel, social considerations, including impacts on local communities and labour conditions are gaining prominence as aquaculture expands into new regions. Consumers and stakeholders are becoming more aware of these topics.
Addressing these challenges requires improved transparency and more systematic data collection. Technologies that enable monitoring, documentation and information sharing are increasingly viewed as essential tools for managing complexity, reducing risk and supporting sustainable growth.
Growth Trajectories and Regional Dynamics
Forecasts towards 2050 suggest continued growth in seafood demand, with marine aquaculture expected to double while capture fisheries remain constrained by biological limits. Overall marine seafood production is projected to increase by around 20 percent over the same period.
Growth patterns will vary by region. Per capita seafood demand is expected to rise faster than demand for terrestrial meat and plant-based alternatives in most regions, with particularly strong growth in Southeast Asia. In absolute terms, Greater China is projected to remain the largest market for marine seafood. These regional differences will influence how aquaculture systems are designed and managed along with how aquaculture value chains operate within the larger food system.
Digitalisation of Supply Chain and Climate Pressure
Future technology development is likely to focus on precision, efficiency and resilience rather than volume alone. Digital monitoring systems, integrated data platforms and end-to-end traceability solutions are becoming increasingly important as supply chains grow more complex.
Climate change adds further uncertainty, increasing the need for adaptive technologies that support risk management, early warning and scenario-based decision-making. Reducing food loss and waste across production and distribution is also emerging as a key priority for improving overall system efficiency, sustainability and food security.
Feed Innovation as a Critical Enabler
Feed development is expected to undergo significant structural change. DNV’s Seafood Forecast indicates that fish meal and fish oil supplies sourced from wild-caught fish will peak around 2030 before falling below current levels by 2050. Marine ingredients for feed will still increase by 50 percent in 2050 as the industry scales circular solutions that increase upcycling of aquaculture by-products, while the total aquaculture feed demand more than doubles. The combined share of fish meal and fish oil in aquaculture feed is projected to decrease from around 18 percent in 2020 to approximately 7-8 percent by 2050.
Meeting future demand for feed ingredients will increasingly depend on decoupling aquaculture growth from raw materials used for human food. The report points to a significant shift towards novel ingredients, which are projected to account for around 26–30 percent of the feed mix towards 2050, supporting both sustainability and supply security in fed aquaculture systems.
Practical Implications for Producers and Feed Suppliers
For producers, food safety remains a top priority, reinforced by rising expectations from regulators, customers and consumers. Preventive biosecurity measures, improved health management and tighter process control are closely linked to both sustainability and operational performance. Reducing losses and improving resource efficiency contribute not only to environmental outcomes but also to economic resilience.
Feed suppliers play a critical enabling role. As feed represents a significant share of production cost and environmental footprint, increased attention is being paid to ingredient sourcing and due diligence, formulation efficiency and documentation. Reliable feed-related data is also essential for supporting traceability and transparency across the value chain.
Across the wider seafood system, surveys indicate that sustainability has shifted from a differentiator to a baseline expectation. Addressing this requires better measurement, clearer performance indicators and improved information sharing. Certification and verification schemes can support structured approaches to these challenges, but their effectiveness depends on the quality of underlying data and the ability to integrate systems across organizational boundaries.
Conclusion: Technology as an Enabler of Sustainable Growth
As aquaculture takes on a larger role in global food supply, its future will be shaped by the industry’s ability to balance growth with sustainability, food safety and transparency. Technology will be a key enabler in this transition, supporting more precise, data-driven and resilient production systems. The challenge ahead lies not only in adopting new tools, but in integrating them effectively across diverse production environments and value chains.
Collaboration between the actors along the supply chain from feed to retail, across data platforms, certification schemes and feed innovation ecosystems is essential not only for delivering growth and sustainability in aquaculture, but also for ensuring the traceability and transparency needed to build trust in these efforts.
