by Dr Mark Rawling, Research Fellow, University of Plymouth, UK
The prospect of a strong El Niño event developing during 2026-27 is drawing attention across the global aquaculture value chain. While shrimp farmers may be some of the most visible stakeholders facing climate-related production risks, the consequences extend well beyond the farms. Feed manufacturers, ingredient suppliers, technology providers and seafood markets all stand to be affected as climatic variability places additional pressure on production systems and supply chains.
For the aquaculture industry, El Niño represents more than a seasonal weather phenomenon. In an era of rising global temperatures (average +1.5°C global temperature), changing rainfall patterns and increasing environmental volatility, climate events can amplify existing production challenges and create new vulnerabilities manifesting as both biotic and abiotic challenges. Among the most significant is the growing interaction between environmental stress and aquatic animal health, a relationship that is rapidly redefining how the industry approaches biosecurity, nutrition and farm management. Current practices are adopting more climate resilient approaches that include using microbial technologies such as probiotic and synbiotics to promote shrimp immunity, improving shrimp genetics, upgrading existing pond infrastructure including optimising aeration and reducing stocking densities. However, future practices will need to continue to develop climate resilience and disease prevention as they are becoming two sides of the same coin.
Climate variability and production risk
Aquaculture has always operated within environmental constraints, but the increasing intensity and unpredictability of climate-related events are challenging traditional risk management approaches. Strong El Niño conditions can significantly alter rainfall patterns, water temperatures, salinity regimes, and water availability across many of the world’s major shrimp-producing regions.
These climate-driven changes can have direct consequences for shrimp growth, survival and overall production performance. Environmental stressors not only reduce productivity but can also impair the ability of shrimp to resist disease challenges. In addition, fluctuations in pond conditions can disrupt microbial balance, increasing the risk of water quality deterioration leading to increased management costs further complicating routine husbandry practices.
As climate variability intensifies, building sustainable production systems will require flexibility in the adoption of different management strategies including the use of AI and IoTs for monitoring production, more use of RAS, SPF broodstocks, inclusion of more IMTA approaches and the inclusion of solar to offset rising energy costs.
Different regions, similar challenges
The impacts of El Niño vary considerably between regions, yet the outcome is often the same: increased operational uncertainty and elevated biosecurity risk. Highlighted below are the major producing global regions that will be affected by the unpredictability of El Nino:
Latin America: Managing water and disease pressure
In Ecuador, Peru and other Pacific-facing regions of Latin America, El Niño events have historically been associated with increased rainfall and flooding. Heavy precipitation can reduce pond salinity, damage infrastructure and increase the movement of sediments, nutrients and potential pathogens into production areas.
For shrimp farmers, these conditions can challenge water-quality control and increase the likelihood of disease outbreaks. Flood events may also disrupt logistics, harvesting schedules and feed delivery networks, creating operational complications throughout the production cycle.
Southeast Asia: Heat stress and water quality challenges
Across much of Southeast Asia, El Niño often brings the opposite problem. Reduced rainfall and extended periods of elevated temperatures can lead to lower water availability, increased evaporation and declining dissolved oxygen levels.
Such conditions place additional stress on cultured shrimp while increasing the risk of harmful algal blooms and deteriorating water quality. In intensive production systems, maintaining stable environmental conditions may require increased aeration, more careful feeding strategies and enhanced monitoring of critical water-quality parameters.
Feed supply chains under pressure
For readers of International Aquafeed, one of the most important implications of a major El Niño event lies within the feed sector itself. The eastern Pacific Ocean plays a major role in global fishmeal production through the highly productive fisheries associated with Peru’s Humboldt Current system. El Niño-related warming can weaken nutrient-rich upwelling, potentially affecting anchoveta abundance and fishing activity. In 2026, the Peruvian fishing quotas have been cut by 36 percent compared to the 3 million tons authorised in 2025 (PRODUCE).
Such significant disruption to fishmeal availability will have implications throughout the aquafeed industry moving through 2026-2027, including:
• Increased fishmeal and fish oil price volatility largely due to a drop in supply by about 49 percent in the first seven months of 2026, according to the IFFO.
• Greater pressure on feed formulation costs
• Increased demand for alternative protein sources
• Supply chain uncertainty for aquafeed manufacturers
• Margin pressures for both feed producers and farmers
In periods when biological risks are already increasing, higher feed costs can further squeeze farm profitability and influence investment decisions across the sector.
Building climate-ready aquaculture
The industry’s response to future climate variability will require more than short-term adaptation measures. Long-term resilience will depend on integrating farming technology, precision feed solutions, genetics and biosecurity into a unified management framework.
Two areas deserve particular attention:
Controlled Production Systems
Technologies such as recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS) and advanced water-treatment solutions can provide greater environmental control while reducing exposure to climatic extremes.
Ingredient Diversification
Continued investment in alternative proteins, including insect meals, microbial proteins, single-cell ingredients and algae-based products, can help reduce production volume dependence on marine raw materials and reduce competitive price value of marine raw materials.
Looking beyond El Niño
Whether or not the 2026-27 event develops to the levels currently anticipated, the broader message for aquaculture is clear. Climate variability is becoming a central business consideration, influencing everything from farm biosecurity and animal health to feed ingredient sourcing and production economics. For the aquafeed sector, this creates both challenges and opportunities. Companies that invest in resilient ingredient strategies, precision feeding technologies and stronger supply-chain management will be better positioned to support producers through periods of environmental uncertainty.
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