by Asief Aliyar, International Aquafeed and Fish Farming Technology
Global fishmeal production fell 28 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, according to the latest data from IFFO – The Marine Ingredients Organisation. March output alone dropped by 38 percent compared to the same month in 2025, representing one of the steepest quarterly declines in recent years.
Fish oil production also declined, though at a more moderate pace. First-quarter output was down 12 percent year-on-year, with regions such as Denmark, Norway and Spain showing greater resilience compared to other producing nations. Production data covers IFFO members in Chile, Denmark, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, Ivory Coast, Mauritius, Norway, Peru, South Africa, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States, which together account for approximately 40 percent of global fishmeal production and 50 percent of fish oil output.
The Peruvian factor
Peru, which typically accounts for about 20 percent of global fishmeal and fish oil production, remains the key variable driving supply tightness. The country set its anchovy quota for the first season of its north-central fishery at 1.91 million metric tonnes – a 36 percent reduction from the same season last year. High levels of juvenile anchovy have prompted fishing restrictions and voluntary suspensions by producers, raising doubts over whether the full quota will be landed.
Enrico Bachis, IFFO’s Market Research Director, noted that the current biomass estimate is approximately 31 percent higher than the September 2025 estimate but 35 percent lower than a year earlier and around 17 percent below the long-term average for January-March surveys between 1996 and 2025.
The downward trend in production has been consistent since the start of the year. Despite a positive fishing effort in southern Peru – where the first anchovy fishing season of 2026 has been underway since January – Peruvian production has remained below previous year’s levels.
Beyond Peru: A complex supply picture
The supply pressure extends beyond Peru. The downward trend continued in 2026 after 2025, when IFFO reported a slight year-on-year decline in fishmeal and fish oil production. Except for the Denmark-Norway region and the United States, both fishmeal and fish oil production decreased in the first months of this year.
Katherine Bryar, Director of Strategic Partnerships at Aqua-Spark, told delegates at the Blue Food Innovation Summit in London that feed is one of the largest bottlenecks constraining the expansion of global aquaculture. Dave Robb, Director of Sustainability at Cargill Animal Nutrition and Health, added that increasing competition for fishmeal and fish oil, combined with climate change and El Niño risk in Peru, is adding further upward pressure on prices for both ingredients.
The demand picture from China, the world’s largest aquaculture producer and a leading user of marine ingredients, is mixed. IFFO has noted that China is expected to account for 42 percent of global fishmeal consumption by 2034. While domestic aquaculture output and aquafeed production for major specialty farmed species increased year-on-year up to March 2026, elevated stock levels of certain species may discourage restocking in the next production cycle. Farm-gate prices for species such as largemouth black bass, snakehead and yellow catfish remain weak, which could prompt farmers to scale back production in the coming season.
A structural shift in ingredient strategy
Despite the supply tightness, the aquafeed sector has made significant progress in reducing dependence on marine raw materials. A typical salmon feed formulation today may contain more than 20 different ingredients, compared with near-total reliance on fishmeal and fish oil in the 1990s. However, complete substitution remains difficult because fishmeal and fish oil provide essential omega-3 fatty acids – including EPA and DHA – and highly digestible proteins critical to fish growth, health and product quality.
Industry observers expect protein substitution to play a growing role in aquaculture feed.
Single-cell proteins: The emerging alternative
Among the alternative ingredients gaining traction, single-cell proteins (SCPs) are emerging as the most scalable and technically validated option. A new report from The Centre for Feed Innovation (CFI) – the 2026 State of the Industry Report on Single-Cell Proteins – highlights SCPs as a credible alternative to looming global fishmeal shortages.
The report, described as the most comprehensive assessment of SCPs in aquafeed to date, finds that SCPs can replace up to 100 percent of fishmeal in shrimp diets and up to 50 percent in certain fish species, without compromising growth performance, health or feed efficiency. Feeding trials have demonstrated comparable growth, feed conversion ratios and survival across species including Asian seabass and Atlantic salmon.
CFI estimates that global SCP production for aquafeed reached 30,000–40,000 metric tonnes in 2025. Based on announced investments and industry forecasts, output could rise to between 150,000 and 500,000 tonnes by 2030 – representing a more than tenfold expansion in five years.
Cost competitiveness is improving. Some methanotrophic bacteria-based technologies are approaching prices of around EU€1500 per tonne, comparable to premium fishmeal. However, significant barriers remain, including high capital and operating costs (with large-scale facilities requiring between US$80 million and US$330 million), regulatory uncertainty in some markets and inconsistent feedstock availability.
The sustainability case
SCPs offer clear environmental and biodiversity advantages over fishmeal. By decoupling protein production from wild fisheries, SCPs reduce pressure on marine ecosystems. When renewable energy and circular feedstocks such as biogas are used, greenhouse gas emissions from SCP production can be comparable to or lower than those of fishmeal. The report states that one tonne of SCPs can replace up to six tonnes of wild-caught fish, highlighting their potential to improve efficiency in aquafeed systems under growing sustainability constraints.
Shortages loom
Fishmeal shortages are projected to emerge as early as 2028, with demand forecast to exceed supply by up to 25 percent of total availability by 2030. This creates urgency for the aquaculture industry to source alternatives at commercial scale.
“Our report finds that single-cell proteins are a technically validated option. SCPs can fully replace fishmeal in shrimp feeds and replace half of it in certain fish species, while matching or improving animal performance,” said Aashish Khimasia, Director of Research at CFI. “The technical case is established and early commercial integration is underway; wider adoption now hinges on realising projected capacity and sustained investment to support production at scale”.
For now, SCPs are expected to complement rather than fully replace fishmeal, as feed strategies rely on a mix of ingredients to optimise cost, nutrition and performance. But the direction is clear: the aquafeed industry is accelerating its search for alternatives and the era of diversified protein sourcing is well underway.
For references, contact editorial@perendale.co.uk
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