The global seafood industry is adapting to new market realities as affordability and shifting trade dynamics reshape consumption patterns in 2025. RaboResearch’s study notes that rising inflation and high tariffs are influencing consumer choices and supply chains.
Affordability remains a key factor in seafood demand worldwide. In the US, steep import tariffs could exacerbate affordability issues, prompting consumers to opt for more affordable protein alternatives.
Meanwhile, China’s seafood demand is projected to improve modestly in 2025, thanks to stimulus efforts, although continued price sensitivity may slow growth in the protein market. European markets appear strong, with exporters likely shifting trade focus from the US and China.
In the salmon sector, growth is expected to moderate. Following a strong performance in early 2025, global salmon supply is expected to increase by approximately 5% in the second half of the year.
However, Norway may experience slower production due to higher sea temperatures and biological risks, while Chile is poised for recovery thanks to improved biomass levels. “Salmon prices could face downward pressure, particularly in the US, where retail prices remain high despite easing wholesale prices,” says Novel Sharma, Seafood analyst at RaboResearch. This situation raises concerns about downtrading among price-sensitive consumers amid uncertainties related to US tariffs.
Shrimp prices rebounded in early 2025 thanks to rising demand and adjustments in retail pricing. However, the outlook for the second half of the year is clouded by trade barriers and environmental challenges.
Ecuador’s early export surge may stall if US tariffs affect demand, while India is approaching its summer production cautiously due to high temperatures and rising costs. “We expect shrimp supply growth to decelerate, with producers potentially delaying or reducing stocking in response to US tariffs,” Sharma notes.
Global trade patterns are evolving, with Ecuador benefiting from lower U.S. duties and India targeting the European Union market. At the same time, Vietnam and Indonesia face significant US tariffs, resulting in fewer export options. Nevertheless, lower feed costs should support industry profitability, helping to offset some of the tariff impacts.
In fish meal production, supply is projected to grow steadily. Peru is expected to reach its highest anchovy quota in seven years, with 3 million metric tonnes available. The anticipated shift to La Niña could further enhance the health of fish biomass and future quotas.
While soymeal prices are declining, fish meal retains a substantial price premium, suggesting possible realignments in the near future. With aquaculture, especially in salmon farming, expected to drive demand for high-protein feed, fish meal prices are likely to remain above long-term averages despite broader market pressures.
