The US presidential election may feel like old news, but its ramifications on global trade policies are still unfolding. The aquaculture and aquafeed industries, in particular, are closely watching how Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs and geopolitical strategies could reshape their markets.
With proposed tariffs of 10% to 20% on imports—and 60% on Chinese goods—the seafood and feed industries are bracing for potential disruptions. While tariffs took 11 months to be implemented during Trump’s first term, this time, industry players are preparing for swift action.
Implications for aquaculture exports
Martin Winkel Lilleøre, Head of Fish Tech at the Danish Export Association, warns that Trump’s proposed tariffs could affect seafood exports to the US.
“If Donald Trump implements a 20 percent tariff on food products, it will inevitably affect the export of seafood from Europe to the US American consumers have already experienced higher prices on food products, and even higher prices on imported seafood will probably mean that foreign seafood products will lose competitiveness.”
The Danish aquaculture sector is particularly focused on potential tariffs on equipment, technology, aquafeed, and packaging solutions. A 10% tariff on these products could hinder exports to the US.
Nevertheless, Danish tech providers are confident they can maintain competitiveness. Lilleøre notes, “Price does matter, but Danish tech providers are highly specialized in their areas, focusing on innovation, sustainability, total cost of ownership, and energy efficiency. A higher price level might not disqualify them or lower their competitiveness compared to American suppliers.”
Despite these challenges, Denmark’s strong position in the US market may limit the overall impact of tariffs on its exports.
The US-China trade relationship
Trump’s tariffs have also brought renewed scrutiny to US-China trade relations, which remain tense. Danish suppliers, for instance, are reconsidering their sourcing and production strategies to mitigate risks associated with tariffs. Lilleøre advises, “Reconsidering your sourcing and production sites, as well as export markets, will be important. As China is a crucial market for Danish companies, we should not turn away from China just because of threats of customs walls.”
For now, industry players are urged to stay flexible and monitor developments closely as Trump’s policies take shape.
Aquafeed and soybean challenges
Soybeans, a critical ingredient for aquafeed, are often caught in the crosshairs of trade disputes. Carlos Mera, Head of Agri Commodities Market Research at Rabobank, explains:
“When retaliation strikes (from China) , the humble soybean, as the single largest agricultural purchase that China makes from the US, might find itself in the eye of the storm.”
Soy prices have already dropped 25% over the past year, squeezing US farmers’ margins. In response, Rabobank has suggested that government subsidies could help farmers store soybeans if tariffs escalate.
The European Union may also emerge as an alternative buyer for US soybeans. A potential trade deal could see the EU purchasing more soybeans, but the EU’s new deforestation regulation (EUDR) complicates this possibility. The regulation, which requires comprehensive traceability for imported soybeans, could limit US exports if they fail to meet compliance standards.
Meanwhile, China has increasingly relied on South American soybean suppliers, with Brazil accounting for 76% of China’s soybean imports during Trump’s first term. A renewed tariff dispute could further entrench China’s preference for South American grains, potentially reducing demand for US soybeans.
Chinese customs data reveals that nearly 90 million tonnes of soybeans were imported from January to October 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%. August imports set a monthly record, highlighting China’s reliance on Brazil as its largest supplier.
Looking ahead
The aquaculture and aquafeed industries face a period of uncertainty as Trump’s policies unfold. Higher tariffs on imports, strained US-China relations, and shifting global supply chains could reshape the sector.
For instance, China’s declining tilapia production and reduced supplies of Russian pollock and cod have created opportunities for Vietnamese basa fish to gain traction in the US market.
According to local media reports, Vietnamese basa fish is positioned as a competitive alternative to Chinese tilapia due to its favourable pricing. This could provide Vietnam’s seafood industry with a significant edge, particularly in the white-flesh fish fillet segment, where basa is showing exceptional growth potential.
Additionally, the 60% tariff on Chinese goods could further boost Vietnam’s exports to the US, as tough competition between Vietnamese basa and Chinese tilapia tilts in Vietnam’s favour.
